President’s Bulletin
January 2026
From the Office of the President
Data-Driven Solutions for Competitiveness: How Income Tax Reform Could Shape Massachusetts’ Future
Dear Massachusetts High Technology Council Members,
I’m writing to share important new research developed by the Mass Opportunity Alliance (MOA), the nonpartisan research and communications initiative co-founded by the Council to support our work advancing Massachusetts’ long-term economic competitiveness.
MOA has completed an original revenue model analyzing the potential fiscal and economic impacts of a proposed ballot initiative that would gradually reduce the Commonwealth’s personal income tax rate from 5% to 4% over three years beginning in 2027. Unlike several incomplete and inaccurate assessments that have been reported, this analysis draws on hundreds of historical budget, revenue, and economic data points to assess how state revenues and economic growth could evolve under the proposal.
Data-Driven Insights
Key findings include:
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Manageable short-term impact: The model estimates an average annual revenue reduction of approximately $680 million during the phase-in period—significantly lower than many public claims and roughly one-tenth of the amount by which the state exceeded its original FY2025 budget.
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Strong long-term revenue outlook: Once fully implemented, revenues are projected to resume growth by 2029 and to grow nearly twice as fast as historical trends.
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Positive economic effects: When accounting for potential GDP growth associated with a lower income tax rate, projected short-term revenue impacts are reduced further, strengthening the overall fiscal outlook.
Why This Research Matters
This research is particularly relevant as Massachusetts works to remain competitive in attracting and retaining talent and investment. Since 2021, 28 states have cut income taxes, including nine states that are implementing rate cuts in 2026. Meanwhile, Massachusetts has moved in the opposite direction, adding a surtax on income over $1 million. MOA’s analysis adds a data-driven perspective to ongoing debates around affordability, workforce retention, and economic growth.
To ensure members have a clear understanding of the methodology and findings, we will host a special presentation by the MOA research team at the Council’s upcoming virtual Directors Meeting on February 9, 2026. In addition to Directors already planning to attend the virtual meeting, we also invite any interested primary member to join. Please contact Jenny Enfield to request the meeting link.
The Bigger Picture
While designed to deliver relief to taxpayers and make the Commonwealth more competitive, these proposals also seek to address the recent unsustainable growth in state spending. Since 2018, the state budget has grown by over 50%, or $20 billion, far exceeding the rate of inflation and the growth in household incomes.
It is critical to Massachusetts’ long-term economic health that state leaders responsibly curb spending growth and take steps to address the drivers of that growth. Health care spending alone accounts for more than one-third of the state’s budget, with much of that spending driven by policy choices the state has made. For example, taxpayer-subsidized Health Connector plans are subject to the Commonwealth’s 59 mandated health benefits, and MassHealth (the state’s Medicaid program) is subject to half of those mandates, driving up costs to the state.
The Council is committed to working with policymakers on data-driven solutions to deliver government services more efficiently and rein in state spending.
Looking Ahead
With the Secretary of State now having certified two 2026 ballot proposals informed by MOA’s work, along with ten others, the Legislature will begin holding hearings on all ballot measures in the months ahead. This next phase presents an important opportunity to engage legislators, employers, and residents in a substantive, data-driven discussion about how Massachusetts can strengthen—and safeguard—its competitive edge.
As always, we will continue to share rigorous, evidence-based analysis to inform policy discussions and advance the Council’s competitiveness agenda.
Thank you for your continued engagement and leadership.
Best,
Chris